The company currently has 3 drugs, excluding COVID-19 vaccines, in phase 3 trials, but each has numerous problems. So as vaccine sales are due to rapidly slow, the question for Moderna becomes “How soon can its deep pipeline generate another blockbuster treatment to spur growth.” Pipeline However, given the current vaccination rate for approved age ranges and high-risk individuals, these additional boosters will be meaningless if optional. Management predicts that the disease will flare up in smaller waves every winter, with new boosters having to be produced annually. will become a seasonal market where boosting and elevating neutralizing protection to prevent breakthrough infections will happen annually in a large population and they will benefit from it, just like they do for flu, or they would for endemic human coronaviruses. If we’re going to try to protect again mild illness for years then we’re going to have boost a couple times a year and that doesn’t make sense from a public health standpoint.īut even if their lofty expectations are met, President Stephen Hoge acknowledged that revenues will fall dramatically next year saying: The goal of this vaccine is to protect against serious illness. Paul Offit, Head of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said that:

Just 4% of those 50+ that CDC recommends get a second booster have received it, showing that Americans and even those worldwide are over the pandemic.Įven scientists are saying that receiving too many boosters would be counter-productive. With everything beyond the first booster becoming optional, vaccinations have plummeted. While this may seem irrelevant as the company guided for $21B in sales for FY22, representing 16% growth from FY21, there’s strong evidence to support that management is overpromising and underdelivering. For the second straight quarter, revenues declined to $4.75B from their $7.21B Q4 peak due to demand fatigue. It’s no surprise that COVID-19, or Spikevax, sales are no longer putting up the massive numbers they once were.

Moderna ( NASDAQ: MRNA) beat both the top and bottom line in Q2, but upon further inspection of their earnings report, there are too many holes to be ignored.

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